Economics

Ioana Marinescu of the School of Social Policy & Practice weighed in on the possibility of a recession in the near future. “I expect a recession any day now, because it’s been almost 12 years since the last trough,” she said. “However, it’s impossible to predict with high accuracy when it will happen since recessions are often precipitated by market panics coalescing around a particular event that is usually hard to anticipate.”

Richard Marston of the Wharton School spoke about Hong Kong’s economic role in the world. “Hong Kong is just a very convenient construct for both China and the rest of the world,” he said. “It’s not in China’s interest nor in the rest of the world’s interest to have Hong Kong’s status changed.”

Peter Conti-Brown of the Wharton School responded to news that the Fed plans to cut interest rates in spite of a solid economy, a shift from past approaches. “I am unaware of another Fed chair in history who has, so quickly and clearly, owned the policy uncertainties that the Fed confronts, including when the Fed has gotten it wrong,” he said. “The strategy was to be the Wizard of Oz to the citizens of the Emerald City, not the man behind the curtain to the visitors from Kansas. [Fed Chair Jerome Powell] has opened the curtain and let us in.”